Many parts of peninsular India, north-western parts of the country, particularly Uttar Pradesh (UP), and a portion of the north-east, including Assam and Meghalaya, are likely to record heavy rainfall on Wednesday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
A low-pressure area is lying over Pakistan and adjoining western Rajasthan.
The western end of the monsoon trough – the line of low pressure – is at its near normal position – from Ganganagar in western Rajasthan to the Bay of Bengal – and the eastern end lies close to the foothills of the Himalayas.
The IMD has forecast widespread and heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorm and lightning over parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, Bihar, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam in Puducherry, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura on Wednesday.
Owing to an interaction between lower-level easterly winds and mid-level westerly trough, widespread and heavy rain with thunder and lightning is likely over north-west India and the western Himalayan region, including Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi , on Thursday and over central parts of the country on Wednesday and Thursday.
Peninsular India, including Rayalaseema, coastal and southern interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (TN) are likely to receive heavy rain during the next three-four days. Very heavy rain is likely to occur over southern interior Karnataka, Kerala and TN on Wednesday and Thursday.
A cyclonic circulation is lying over Gangetic West Bengal and another cyclonic circulation is lying over southern Assam and its adjoining areas.
“Whenever the monsoon trough moves to the north, a convergence zone develops in the extreme south peninsular region. As a result, heavy rain in Kerala is likely over the next few days. There is no likelihood of development of any low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. We are expecting monsoon to be subdued in rest of the country,” said RK Jenamani, a scientist with IMD’s national weather forecasting centre.
Monsoon rain over the country since June 1 is 9% excess.
Data showed that the rainfall is 20% excess over southern peninsula and Central India; 9% deficient over north-west; and 2% excess over east and north-eastern parts of the country.